Composite of long-, medium-, and short-lead indicators (yield curve, labor, credit, manufacturing, and market stress) with clear methodology, historical context, and data freshness stamps. Cached snapshots are used when live data is unavailable.
10Y-2Y spread from FRED. Sustained inversions below 0% have preceded most post-war recessions by 6-24 months.
4-week average of initial claims (FRED ICSA). A 20%+ rise from the 12-month low historically signals early labor stress.
Payroll is monthly percent change (PAYEMS). Unemployment uses the 3-month average (UNRATE) to smooth noise.
Sahm Rule: 3-month unemployment average minus 12-month low. Values at or above 0.5 align with recession onsets.
Baa corporate spread over 10Y Treasuries. Widening above ~2.0 points often appears during late-cycle stress.
Consumer 90+ day delinquencies. Sustained increases tend to rise before and during recessions.
ISM PMI below 50 signals contraction; readings below mid-40s have historically overlapped recession months.
6-month annualized change in the Conference Board LEI. Persistent declines (roughly below -4%) have preceded most downturns.
Year-over-year change in rail carloads. Persistent negative YoY readings indicate broad industrial slowdown.
Commercial loan 90+ day delinquency rate. Spikes above ~1.5% indicate tightening credit and recession risk.
VIX above ~30 reflects acute risk aversion; spikes often accompany recession shocks.
Broad trade-weighted dollar index. Extreme strength or weakness can tighten financial conditions.
30-day gold momentum. Sustained gains often reflect flight-to-quality behavior.
Absolute 24-hour bitcoin move. Large swings signal risk-off stress in speculative assets.
Effective Fed Funds rate. High and rising rates have historically preceded downturns with lag.
Each indicator is normalized to a 0-100 risk score using historically observed thresholds and lead times. The overall gauge blends long-lead (yield curve, LEI, policy stance), medium-lead (PMI, claims, credit, freight, delinquencies), and short-lead (labor, volatility, dollar, gold, crypto) signals.
10Y-2Y Treasury spread (FRED T10Y2Y). Sustained inversions below 0 have preceded most post-war recessions with long lead times.
4-week average of weekly claims (FRED ICSA). A 20%+ rise from the 12-month low has historically signaled labor market stress.
Monthly percent change in nonfarm payrolls (PAYEMS). Negative or near-zero growth often appears around recession onsets.
Three-month average of UNRATE to smooth noise. Rapid increases from cyclical lows indicate weakening demand.
3-month unemployment average minus 12-month low (SAHMREALTIME). Values at or above 0.5 align with recession onsets.
Baa-10Y spread (BAA10Y). Widening above ~2.0 indicates tighter credit and rising default risk.
90+ day delinquency rate on consumer loans (DRCCLACBS). Sustained increases tend to rise before and during recessions.
ISM PMI (NAPMPMI). Below 50 signals contraction; readings below mid-40s often overlap recession months.
6-month annualized change in the LEI (USSLIND). Persistent declines (roughly below -4%) have preceded most downturns.
YoY change in rail freight carloads (RAILFRTCARLOADSD11). Persistent negative YoY signals broad industrial slowdown.
90+ day delinquency rate on commercial loans (DRBLACBS). Spikes above ~1.5% indicate tightening credit.
VIX index (VIXCLS). Spikes above 30 often coincide with recessionary shocks and risk-off episodes.
Broad trade-weighted dollar index (DTWEXBGS). Extreme moves can tighten financial conditions globally.
30-day percent change in gold (GOLDPMGBD228NLBM). Sustained gains often reflect flight-to-quality.
Absolute 24-hour bitcoin move (CoinGecko). Large swings signal shifts in risk appetite.
Effective Fed Funds rate (FEDFUNDS). High and rising policy rates have historically preceded downturns with lag.